Interpreting Societal Risk Maps

Societal Risk maps are a geographical representation of risk. They are not a new risk criterion but a functionality developed at Gexcon, exclusively available in RISKCURVES, that helps identify areas of concern on a map.​ These maps provide a visual tool to understand and communicate societal risk effectively.

Societal Risk Area map

The SR Area Map illustrates the Societal Risk level for scenarios affecting specific areas on the map. It highlights regions where the societal risk exceeds the risk acceptance criteria.

Interpretation

The colours on the map represent the guide value ratio of the f-N curve for each location, indicating the extent to which the value exceeds the limit at that coordinate. The Societal Risk ranges from low (green) to high (red):

• Red-coloured areas: These regions have a Societal Risk above the risk acceptance criterion. The corresponding f-N curves for each geographical grid are above the guide value.

• Green-coloured areas: These regions do not pose a threat in terms of Societal Risk. The corresponding f-N curves for each geographical grid are below the guide value.

• Orange-coloured areas: These regions are at the limit of the risk acceptance criterion. The f-N curves on each of those geographical grids are right on top of the guide value.

Application

The SR Area Map is typically used as a tool for urban development planning by highlighting areas that present problems and still have the potential for population growth.

SR Area maps help planners and decision-makers identify areas with unacceptable risk levels, guiding the placement of new residential, commercial, and industrial developments. By avoiding high-risk areas, urban planners can create safer communities and ensure that population growth occurs in regions with lower societal risks.

Societal Risk Contribution map

The SR Contribution Map shows which areas contribute the most to the Societal Risk. It shows the "hotspots" that might pose a significant threat in terms of Societal Risk.

Interpretation

The SR Contribution Map is based on the Expected value (E) of an f-N curve, also known as the “Potential Loss of Life” (PLL). The colours translates the area below f-N cuve, representing the number of fatalities expected in a given ​accident scenario, and expose areas with the largest area below the f-N curve. Areas with higher contributions to the Societal Risk will be more red.

However, those red areas do not necessarily mean their corresponding f-N curve exceeds the risk acceptance criterion (i.e., guide value). A red area merely indicates a high relative contribution to the existing Societal Risk around that location.

Application

The SR Contribution Map is typically used for emergency response and risk reduction.

• Emergency response planning: The SR Contribution Map highlights "hotspots" where the potential for mass casualties is highest, allowing emergency services to prioritize these areas in their preparedness and response strategies. This information can be used to develop targeted evacuation plans, allocate resources more effectively, and conduct emergency drills that focus on high-risk areas.

• Risk reduction measures: The SR Contribution Map is instrumental in identifying areas that may benefit from risk reduction measures. These measures could include engineering controls, process modifications, or the relocation of hazardous activities away from populated areas. By understanding which areas contribute most significantly to societal risk, companies and regulators can implement targeted interventions to reduce overall risk levels.

Conclusion

Societal Risk maps in RISKCURVES provide a crucial tool for visualising and understanding the distribution and contributors to societal risk. The SR Area Map helps in urban planning by identifying areas with unacceptable risk levels, while the SR Contribution Map aids in emergency response planning and risk reduction by highlighting areas that significantly contribute to Societal Risk. These maps make it easier to answer critical questions such as "Do we have a problem?", "Where is this problem?", and "What is causing this problem?" on a map.