Consequence Risk

Definition

Consequence Risk is the risk that a specific threshold level is exceeded. So for example, the risk of exceeding a heat radiation level of 35 kW/m² (which corresponds to 100% lethality level for fires), and/or the risk of exceeding an overpressure level of 300 mbar (which corresponds to 100% lethality level for explosions).​

It is expressed in units of per year (/year).

Calculation

Consequence Risk is presented as an iso-risk contour (e.g., for exceeding 35 kW/m², 300 mbar, etc.). Some countries use this consequence risk to define, what for example Singapore defines as “injury level risk”. Injury level risk is the risk that a combination of multiple thresholds are exceeded.​

Application

Consequence risk calculations in RISKCURVES have a broad range of applications, enhancing safety and decision-making in various domains. Some examples are:

• Facility siting: Use Consequence Risk contours to determine the optimal positioning of buildings and constructions by showing the chance of them being exposed to a specific effect level.

• Urban planning: Consequence Risk contours can guide the development and expansion of urban areas by highlighting zones with unacceptable risk levels, thus aiding in making informed decisions about where to allow residential, commercial, and industrial developments.

• Potential injury risk evaluation: Assess the likelihood of injury in different areas based on the specified Consequence Risk thresholds.

• Risk Communication: Visual representations of consequence risks help in communicating potential hazards to stakeholders, including employees, management, and the public. This enhances awareness and facilitates informed discussions about risk mitigation measures.

• Emergency Response Planning: By understanding the areas with higher risk levels, emergency response teams can prioritise their resources and strategies more effectively. This helps in preparing and implementing evacuation plans, emergency drills, and resource allocation.

Consequence Risk in RISKCURVES

In RISKCURVES threshold levels for pressure, heat radiation, toxic concentration, and toxic dose can be specified. The resulting iso-risk contours will be presented on the map using the same colour codes as Individual Risk. These contours illustrate locations where the Consequence Risk has identical values.

For more information about how to calculate Consequence Risk in RISKCURVES, please refer to the article “Calculating Consequence Risk in RISKCURVES”.