What is risk modelling

Risk modelling serves as a powerful tool in quantifying and assessing the various risks inherent in complex systems and processes. By analysing the likelihood and potential consequences of hazards, it provides valuable insights that inform decision-making and risk-management strategies.

This article aims to shed light on the concept of risk modelling, its role in Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and the process involved in quantifying risk.

Understanding risk modelling

At its core, risk modelling involves the quantitative analysis of risk factors within a system or process. It aims to predict and assess the likelihood and consequences of potential hazards, from industrial accidents. By employing statistical data and probability analysis, risk modelling enables stakeholders to identify critical risk factors and prioritise mitigation efforts effectively.

Risk modelling process

Risk modelling is an integral part of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), a comprehensive process designed to quantify the risks associated with engineering operations. Within the risk modelling phase, two main dimensions of risk are considered: likelihood and consequence. Statistical data, including base failure frequencies and weather statistics, are collected to assess the probability of hazards occurring. Population distribution may also be required.

A risk analysis uses risk criteria to judge the “acceptability of risk”. Using advanced software tools like RISKCURVES, risk analysts can streamline the risk modelling process, saving time and leveraging computational capabilities to perform extensive analyses. By combining the likelihood of each hazard with its potential consequences, risk modelling provides a quantitative measure of risk that can be used to inform decision-making and risk management strategies.

Conclusion

Risk modelling plays a crucial role in understanding and managing risks within complex systems and processes. By quantifying the likelihood and consequences of hazards, it provides valuable insights that inform decision-making processes aimed at mitigating and managing risks effectively. Leveraging advanced software tools like RISKCURVES enhances the efficiency and accuracy of risk modelling, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions and safeguard assets, infrastructure, and communities against potential risks.