What is consequence modelling

Consequence modelling is a method of predicting and understanding the potential outcomes of accidental releases of hazardous materials and plays a pivotal role in hazard analysis.

By simulating scenarios such as fires, explosions, or dispersion events, this analytical approach provides crucial insights into the impacts on populations and infrastructure.

This article delves into the importance of consequence modelling, its applications in designing safe facilities, and the systematic process involved in conducting such analyses.

Importance of consequence modelling

Consequence modelling empowers stakeholders to take a proactive approach to safety by anticipating and mitigating potential risks. By simulating hypothetical scenarios, such as chemical spills or industrial accidents, organisations can design and implement preventive measures to minimise the likelihood and severity of such incidents. Key questions addressed through consequence modelling include assessing the reach of fires or explosions and quantifying overpressure levels on nearby structures.

Consequence modelling answers questions such as:​

• Will this fire reach a nearby hospital?​ Results: concentration of a flammable substance or heat radiation vs. distance.

• What is the overpressure level that this apartment building would receive from an explosion occurring inside this chemical facility?​ Results: overpressure vs. distance, damage level, lethality.

Consequence analysis process

Consequence modelling is a structured process used for estimating the impact of an event and involves a systematic process that integrates various data inputs, mathematical models, and computational algorithms to simulate the outcomes of hazardous incidents. Additionally, the output from consequence modelling provides input for risk analysis. The following steps provide an overview of the consequence analysis process:

• Define potential accident scenarios: Identify relevant accident scenarios based on the nature of the facility and the materials involved. Gather relevant data on hazardous substance properties, meteorological conditions, and topographical factors to inform the modelling process.

• Evaluate event consequences: Select suitable modelling tools tailored to the hazard scenarios. These may include selecting available software modelling tools that contain dispersion models to assess the concentration of airborne contaminants, fire models to assess heat radiation exposure and explosion models to assess exposure to overpressure levels. Consequence modelling tools such as EFFECTS or FLACS, are suitable for addressing this task. Run simulations to predict hazard scenario progression and generate outputs such as contaminant concentration profiles, temperature distributions, and pressure levels.

• Estimate the impact of events: Analyse simulation results to understand the consequences on human health, infrastructure, and the environment.

By following this systematic approach, consequence modelling facilitates informed decision-making and risk management, enabling organisations to enhance safety measures and mitigate the potential impacts of hazardous incidents effectively.

Conclusion

Consequence modelling serves as a critical tool in safeguarding industrial operations and surrounding communities against the risks associated with hazardous materials. By simulating various accident scenarios and assessing their potential consequences, stakeholders can proactively identify vulnerabilities and implement measures to mitigate risks. Gexcon’s X-Suite software modelling tools EFFECTS and FLACS for consequence modelling can enhance our ability to anticipate and respond to potential hazards, ultimately fostering safer environments and resilient communities.

Reference

NIPV (2023). Tankwagen LNG – Wolkbrand – Weg. Available online: https://scenarioboeken.nipv.nl/tankwagen-lng-wolkbrand-weg/