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What’s new in RISKCURVES v12.4

RISKCURVES v12.4 now includes the latest models and enhancements from EFFECTS v12.4, bringing advanced capabilities for assessing risks related to battery thermal runaway, buried pipeline ruptures and crater formation, and improved dispersion modelling for vertical jet releases.

Battery thermal runaway model

Overview

Battery thermal runaway incidents present significant safety challenges, particularly in the context of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). EFFECTS v12.4 introduces an advanced modelling capability to simulate toxic releases during such events, making it the first consequence modelling software to offer this feature.

Technical details

The model employs an empirical approach based on experimental data, allowing users to estimate the mass of toxic gases released during a thermal runaway. Inputs required include battery chemistry, energy capacity, release duration, and the number of cells involved. The model outputs key toxic species such as HF, CO, HCl, HCN, and NO2, with HF being a primary concern due to its corrosive nature.

Application

These outputs can be integrated into passive dispersion calculations, enabling more precise predictions of toxic gas spread. By accounting for the height of the release source and standard dispersion inputs, users can better assess the potential impact, thereby enhancing safety and compliance in BESS operations.  

Crater formation model

Overview

EFFECTS v12.4 introduces a new crater formation model specifically designed to analyse the aftermath of buried pipeline ruptures. This enhancement is particularly relevant for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) facilities, where such incidents can have severe consequences.

Technical details

The model estimates crater size by leveraging validation data from the COOLTRANS experiments on dense-phase CO2 transportation, along with historical data from liquified pipeline ruptures. It predicts the crater source term by simulating the interaction of jets from a double-sided pipeline outflow, using correlations derived from both experimental and CFD simulations.

Application

The resulting crater dimensions and associated jet characteristics can be seamlessly integrated with EFFECTS’ dispersion and jet fire models, providing a comprehensive assessment of both immediate and delayed risks. This integration supports more effective response strategies in the event of a buried pipeline rupture.

Enhanced dispersion model for vertical jet releases

Overview

Accurate modelling of hazardous material dispersion is key for safety planning. The enhanced dispersion model in EFFECTS v12.4 focuses on improving the simulation of vertical jet releases under crosswind conditions.

Technical details

The model now better represents the bending of vertical jets due to crosswinds, accurately predicting the formation of lateral vortices as the jet decelerates and bends. It also carefully manages the entrainment process in descending plumes to maintain consistency with experimental data.

Application

These improvements lead to more reliable predictions of jet trajectories and concentration distributions, which are essential for determining safe distances and mitigating risks in safety analysis.

Additional note

For more information, refer to the "Version Information" document available through the software’s <Help> dropdown in a Menubar or download the document from the EFFECTS & RISKCURVES download centre.