Risk modelling tools

Introduction

A risk modelling tool is a software solution tailored to perform Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), aiming to assess the total risk of storing, handling, and transporting dangerous substances in industrial facilities. The results can be used for the evaluation of high-risk activities, urban planning and complying with regulatory and corporate criteria.

A risk modelling tool gathers relevant data pertaining to process parameters, transportation routes, storage facilities, and historical incidents utilising this information to simulate potential consequences and quantify associated risks. By combining probability with consequence analysis, risk modelling tools prioritise mitigation efforts and evaluate the impact of risk reduction measures effectively.

Commonly analysed risks

Risk is a very wide term. Diverse types of risk analysis look at the severity of scenarios from different angles. Risk modelling tools, such as RISKCURVES developed by Gexcon, commonly assess various types of risks within industrial settings:

• Individual Risk (IR), also referred to as LSIR (Locational Specific Individual Risk), is defined as the chance per year that a person in a specific location, who is continually and unprotected present at that spot, is a victim of an accident with dangerous substances. It is usually presented using iso-risk contours, providing spatial representations of risk levels.

• Individual Risk Per Annum (IRPA) adjust for occupancy and potential protection factors within occupied buildings, accounting for factors like intermittent occupancy and building protection against hazards such as fires, explosions and toxic dispersions.

• Societal Risk (SR) evaluates the cumulative risk of fatalities within a specified population group, typically presented using an fN graph, which plots frequency against number of victims. The following metrics are used to provide insights into risk acceptability and expected fatalities:

  • The guide ratio expresses how much the value exceeds the acceptable limit (i.e., guide value).

  • Potential Loss of Life (PLL) or expected value is the size of the area below the fN curve representing the number of fatalities that will occur given an ​accident scenario.

• Consequence Risk (CR) assesses the probability per year that specified threshold levels for a combination of various physical effects, such as overpressure, heat radiation, or toxic load, are exceeded.

Conclusion

In conclusion, risk modelling tools like RISKCURVES are indispensable for comprehensive Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) in industrial facilities.

By integrating data and simulating potential consequences, these tools provide insights into individual and societal risks, guiding the prioritisation of mitigation efforts and ensuring compliance with regulatory standards. Leveraging advanced software solutions enables organisations to enhance safety measures, minimise risks, and safeguard both personnel and the environment in industrial facilities.