Assessing risks in refinery production increase

Introduction

As industries expand and production increases, evaluating associated risks becomes critical to safeguard people, assets, and the environment. Every change in production can alter the risk landscape, necessitating thorough risk assessments following each adjustment.

Scenario

We will examine a scenario where production is increased in a refinery, which requires the use of an additional storage tank for hexane. How will this affect the risk at the production site? By leveraging RISKCURVES, we can analyse this scenario comprehensively and ensure that all potential risks are identified and managed appropriately. For this reason, we will add additional equipment and a Pool Fire scenario to the analysis by using analysis data from the same type of tank that was already included in the analysis.

Process overview

1 Modify production capacity

Create a new alternative production scenario based on your current risk calculation. Each calculation set allows you to create, delete, and modify scenarios while keeping all calculation settings, population data, and meteorological distributions consistent. This flexibility enables you to easily apply changes to increase or decrease production. Evaluating an alternative production capacity typically starts with the current production situation. To add another production alternative, follow these steps:

• Copy + Paste the calculation set (click on calculation set and press Ctrl+C, Ctrl+V) and rename it (press F2).

• To this exact copy of your calculation, add a new scenario or adjust the input parameters of scenarios affected by a production increase. In the video below, an additional tank A3 for storing higher hydrocarbons is added to the calculation set.

• After all parameters are adjusted, press Calculate.

• Now you have 2 calculation sets. One reflecting the current production and one reflecting the planned increase in production.

2 Comparative risk evaluation

Comparison sets allow you to easily compare the risk acceptability of different production plans by displaying the results side by side on a map and in a graph. This visual comparison helps you quickly identify and assess any significant differences in risk between scenarios. To compare multiple production situations follow these steps:

• Create a comparison set.

• Select the scenarios to be included in the comparison set in the input panel and compare the risk results in sets.

For this purpose, the video below shows how to create a comparison set comparing "Current production" and "Increased production". The video also shows how to edit the level of iso-risk contours in a comparison set and improve the visibility of the contours.

Tips

The level of displayed contours can be modified in presentation settings. This does not affect the results, only their presentation. Export contour or SR maps and make risk visualisation in Google Earth.

Download the project file

Take a look at the Consequence Risk calculation in RISKCURVES for a refinery scenario requiring an additional hexane storage tank due to increased production.

Click this link to download the project file

To view the project file, please open it using the RISKCURVES software. If you don’t have the software, you can download and use the free viewing demo version of RISKCURVES via the link below.

Download RISKCURVES free viewing demo