Calculating Consequence Risk

About Consequence Risk

Consequence Risk (CR) is defined as the annual probability that specified threshold levels for a combination of physical effects (such as overpressure, heat radiation, toxic load or exposure to a flammable cloud) will be exceeded.

While individual risk contours illustrate the probability of lethality at a location, consequence level contours show the likelihood that specific pressure levels, heat radiation levels, toxic concentration, toxic dose thresholds, or flammability limits will be exceeded.

Calculating Consequence Risk

Unlike some other risk calculations in RISKCURVES, Consequence Risk is not calculated automatically. After defining the model inputs, you need to define threshold levels in a separate tree node labelled “Consequence Risk”.

The steps to add a Consequence Risk calculation are as follows:

• Right-click on the "Consequence risk" node.

• Select "Add consequence risk".

• Specify the threshold levels of interest that will be shown in the contours as a Consequence Risk definition.

Heat radiation, overpressure, toxic exposure and Lower Flammability Limit (LFL) exposure can all be aggregated if multiple phenomena are selected. You can also define multiple independent consequence risks with different threshold levels.

Tip

Give each consequence definition a unique descriptive name. This name will appear in the legend and enhance clarity when reviewing the results.

Results interpretation

The resulting Consequence Risk contours will be presented on the map using the same colour codes as Individual Risk. These contours illustrate locations where the Consequence Risk has identical values. By activating the Risk Grid, you can read out risk values at any location using the crosshair tool.

Note

The risk grid is only visible when Expert mode is selected.

If the associated contour dimensions of specified weather classes need to be reported, the same threshold values can be entered in presentation settings. Each weather class model will then show associated contours and their dimensions.

Application

Consequence Risk calculations in RISKCURVES have a broad range of applications, enhancing safety and decision-making in various domains. Some examples are:

• Facility siting: Use Consequence Risk contours to determine the optimal positioning of buildings and constructions by showing the chance of them being exposed to a specific effect level.

• Urban planning: Consequence Risk contours can guide the development and expansion of urban areas by highlighting zones with unacceptable risk levels, thus aiding in making informed decisions about where to allow residential, commercial, and industrial developments.

• Potential injury risk evaluation: Assess the likelihood of injury in different areas based on the specified Consequence Risk thresholds.

• Risk Communication: Visual representations of consequence risks help in communicating potential hazards to stakeholders, including employees, management, and the public. This enhances awareness and facilitates informed discussions about risk mitigation measures.

• Emergency Response Planning: By understanding the areas with higher risk levels, emergency response teams can prioritise their resources and strategies more effectively. This helps in preparing and implementing evacuation plans, emergency drills, and resource allocation.

Conclusion

Consequence Risk calculations in RISKCURVES provide a detailed analysis of potential hazards and help in making informed decisions about facility layout, emergency response planning, and overall risk management.